竞技宝:英格兰队豪取胜利，晋级八强

（18年考研英语真题同源 外刊赏读 第57篇）

文章来源：《经济学人》

文章标题：The Strange Case of the Missing Baby

原文首先提出生育率过低的问题，今昔对比说明经济危机是生育率骤降的罪魁祸首，进而提出困惑：发达国家为何也进入了生育低谷；继而提出几种可能的解释和原因；最后说明可能产生的影响。本文结构清晰，论证方式多样，适合阅读积累。

　　原文

　　原文

I ①He is not exactly leading by example, but PopeFrancis wants more babies. ②“The great challenge of Europe is to return to being mother Europe,” he said last year, while suggesting that young people might be having too few children because they preferred holidays. ③Europe certainly lacks young souls, particularly inCatholiccountries such as Italy and Spain. ④But the baby shortage is broader: mother America and mother Australia have gone missing, too.

II ①They were certainly present a decade ago. ②Although birth rates were low in the former communist countries of eastern Europe, and in traditionalist places where it is hard to combine work with motherhood—think Japan, South Korea and southern Europe—many countries were having a baby boom.

III ①The financial crisis abruptly turned the boom tobust.②Countries in the European Union delivered5,469,000 babies in 2008 but only 5,075,000 in 2013—a drop of over 7%. ③In America the fertilityrate fell from a peak of 2.12 in 2007 to 1.86 in 2014. ④Ken Johnson, a demographerat the University of New Hampshire, estimated that America was missing 2.3m babies.

IV ①The crunchwas unsurprising: anxiety about jobs and money puts people off children. ②But a rich-world baby bust that began predictably turned into a puzzle.

V ①One possible explanation is that immigrants are not boosting birth rates much these days, and might even be dragging them down. ②Some demographers suggest that cuts to welfare might have made poor mothers warier of having children.

VI ①Ann Berrington of Southampton University points to housing. ②Young and even not-so-young couples find it hard to buy property in England and Wales: 46% of 25-to 34-year-olds lived in private rented accommodationin 2014-15, up from 24% a decade earlier.

VII ①You can have a baby in a rented flat, of course. ②But in a country like Britain, where earlier generations found it easy to buy homes, that seems to flout a psychological rule for some. ③In the 1960s Richard Easterlin, an American economist, suggested that people would avoid having children if they felt unable to bring them up in a style that at least matched the way they were raised.

VIII ①Some couples could be delaying having babies not because they cannot afford them, but because of a vague feeling that family life is harder than it used to be. ②A Pew poll of 11 rich countries last year found that 64% believe that today’s children will be worse off than their parents. ③Perhaps thegloom has spread even to countries with strong economies.

IX ①Whether and when birth rates bounceback, and how high, has broad consequences. ②America’sCensus Bureau simply assumes that current fertility rates will persist.③If lower fertility lasts, it would help balance government accounts in the short term, because there would be fewer children to educate, but hurt in the long term.④A fertility rate of 1.8 would mean twice as large an annual social-securitydeficitby 2089 as one of 2.2, as a percentage of the social-security tax base.

　　(“The Strange Case of the Missing Baby” The Economist Apr. 30th.)

　　词汇短语

　　1. pope [p??p] n. 教皇，罗马教皇

2. Catholic ['kæθl?k] a. 天主教的

3. boom [bu?m] n. 繁荣

4. *bust [b?st] n. 破产，萧条

5. deliver [d?'l?v?] v. 给 (产妇) 接生

6. fertility [f?'t?l?t?] n. 【生物学】能育性；繁殖力 fertility rate 生育率

7. peak [pi?k] n. 最高点；顶点

8. *demographer [di?'m?ɡr?f?] n. 人口统计学家，人口学家

9. *crunch [kr?n(t)?] n. 困难，危机

10. *wary ['we?r?] a. 谨慎的

11. *accomodation [ ?'k?m?'de??n ] n. 住处，膳宿

12. *flout [fla?t] v. 嘲笑；藐视；愚弄

13. gloom [glu?m] n. 忧郁

14. bounce [ba?ns] v. 反跳；弹回

15. census ['sens?s] n. 人口普查，人口调查（复数censuses）

16. persist [p?'s?st] v. (尤指不合意的事物) 继续存在

（标*号为超纲词）

　　点评

I ①He is not exactly leading by example, but PopeFrancis wants more babies. ②“The great challenge of Europe is to return to being mother Europe,” he said last year, while suggesting that young people might be having too few children because they preferred holidays. ③Europe certainly lacks young souls, particularly inCatholiccountries such as Italy and Spain. ④But the baby shortage is broader: mother America and mother Australia have gone missing, too.

翻译：虽未亲身示范，但弗朗西斯主教希望增加婴儿数量。去年他表示：“欧洲面临的巨大挑战在于重新做回欧洲妈妈”，暗示年轻人可能因为个人享受而少生孩子。欧洲，特别是意大利、西班牙等天主教国家确实缺少年轻生命。但是新生儿不足波及的范围更广：美国妈妈和澳洲妈妈也不见了。

点评：第一段由教皇的呼吁引出普遍现象：生育率下降。①②句介绍教皇的观点：欧洲需要更多婴儿。①句涉及天主教文化背景，即天主教教皇不能结婚，自然不会有子女，因此虽然鼓励公民生育，自己却不能亲身示范。②句引用教皇话语解释①句。其中return说明暗含今昔对比，说明如今生育率比以前低；great challenge，too few等用语凸显生育问题的严重性。③④句引出实际情况：天主教国家固然存在年轻人变少的窘境，而这一问题波及的范围更广。本段mother再现，与国家和地区连用，如mother Europe，mother America，mother Australia指代该国家或地区的生育女性。

II ①They were certainly present a decade ago. ②Although birth rates were low in the former communist countries of eastern Europe, and in traditionalist places where it is hard to combine work with motherhood—think Japan, South Korea and southern Europe—many countries were having a baby boom.

翻译：十年前他们当然还在。虽然东欧前共产主义国家以及工作育儿难以结合的传统主义国家（日本、韩国和南欧）生育率较低，很多国家都经历着婴儿潮。

点评：第二段追溯过去的情况。①句指明过去的时间范围和情况，a decade ago时间状语与过去时were表明本段描述的对象为过去。They指代首段中的mother；a decade ago点明今昔对比的对象：十年前的情况；present与首段④句missing对比说明生育率的变化。②句具体说明过去情况，。Although引导让步状语从句说明例外的情况：少数国家生育率较低；主句为语意重点：很多国家都处于生育潮。

III ①The financial crisis abruptly turned the boom tobust.②Countries in the European Union delivered5,469,000 babies in 2008 but only 5,075,000 in 2013—a drop of over 7%. ③In America thefertilityrate fell from apeak of 2.12 in 2007 to 1.86 in 2014. ④Ken Johnson, a demographerat the University of New Hampshire, estimated that America was missing 2.3m babies.

翻译：经济危机突然将生育高峰变成生育低谷。2008年欧盟国家共出生546.9万婴儿，2013年这一数字仅为507.5万，下降超过7%。美国生育率从2007年的高峰2.12下降到2014年的1.86。新罕布什尔大学人口统计学家约翰逊估计美国新生儿共减少230万。

点评：第三段承接第二段对过去情况的介绍转而说明发生今昔对比的契机：经济危机。①句为段落主旨句说明经济危机突然（abruptly）将生育高峰（boom）变成生育低谷（bust）。②③④句引用数据说明①句。

IV ①The crunchwas unsurprising: anxiety about jobs and money puts people off children. ②But a rich-world baby bust that began predictably turned into a puzzle.

翻译：这一危机不足为奇：由于工作和收入方面的担忧，人们不再生育。但是发达国家如期而至的生育低谷令人费解。

点评：第四段为过渡段，①句承上说明生育率陡降的原因：对工作和收入的担忧；②句转折引出下文讨论问题，提出令人费解的现象：发达国家也进入生育低谷。

第五至八段提出三种可能的原因。

V ①One possible explanation is that immigrants are not boosting birth rates much these days, and might even be dragging them down. ②Some demographers suggest that cuts to welfare might have made poor mothers warier of having children.

翻译：一种可能的解释是，近年来，移民不仅没有大幅提高生育率，反而可能拉低生育率。一些人口统计学家表明福利减少可能使得贫穷母亲在生育方面更加谨慎。

点评：第五段提出一种可能的解释：移民不仅没有提高生育率，反而拉低生育率。①句直接指出可能原因之一，②句解释说明①句，指出福利减少导致人们生育意愿降低。

VI ①Ann Berrington of Southampton University points to housing. ②Young and even not-so-young couples find it hard to buy property in England and Wales: 46% of 25-to 34-year-olds lived in private rented accommodationin 2014-15, up from 24% a decade earlier.

翻译：南安普大学的Berrington则指向住房问题。在英格兰和威尔士，年轻甚至年龄稍长的夫妇难以购买地产：2014至2015年，25至34岁的夫妇中有46%自行租住私人房屋，比十年前上升24%。

点评：第六至七段指出原因之二：住房问题。

第六段直接提出可能的原因。①句借专家观点提出可能的原因为住房问题。②句解释说明住房问题：年轻人买房难，大多租房。

VII ①You can have a baby in a rented flat, of course. ②But in a country like Britain, where earlier generations found it easy to buy homes, that seems to flout a psychological rule for some. ③In the 1960s Richard Easterlin, an American economist, suggested that people would avoid having children if they felt unable to bring them up in a style that at least matched the way they were raised.

翻译：当然，你也可以在租住的公寓内养育孩子。但在英国这样的国家，老一辈国人很容易购买房屋，租房育儿似乎违反了一些人的心理原则。20世纪60年代，一位美国经济学家Easterlin指出，人们如果认为无法为孩子提供至少与自身成长条件持平的养育条件，就不会生育。

点评：第七段进一步解释住房问题对于生育意愿的影响。①句退而指出在租住房屋内洋养育子女固然可行，of course强调这一做法理论上完全可行。②句以英国为例，说明人们心理上无法接受这一做法；③句以美国经济学家的观点进一步解释这一心理：人们如果自觉无法为子女提供好的条件，就不会生育。

VIII ①Some couples could be delaying having babies not because they cannot afford them, but because of a vague feeling that family life is harder than it used to be. ②A Pew poll of 11 rich countries last year found that 64% believe that today’s children will be worse off than their parents. ③Perhaps thegloom has spread even to countries with strong economies.

翻译：有些夫妇推迟生育可能不是因为经济原因，而是因为隐约觉得家庭生活比以前更加艰难。去年一份针对11个富裕国家的佩尤民调显示，64%受访者相信现在的孩子的生活会差于父母。可能这种悲观情绪已经扩散到经济大国了。

点评：第八段指出原因之三：认为家庭生活艰难的悲观情绪。①句直接指明第三种可能的原因：家庭生活艰难。该句以not because...but because of句型否定了经济原因（cannot afford them），肯定了人们心理原因（a vague feeling）。②句引用调查结果说明人们普遍认为下一代没有上一代过得好。③句进一步说明这种悲观情绪蔓延至经济强国。Countries with strong economies回指第四段②句rich-world，说明与常人所认为的相反（人们普遍认为经济越好人们对未来越有信心），经济实力强的国家也对未来持悲观态度。

IX ①Whether and when birth rates bounceback, and how high, has broad consequences. ②America’sCensus Bureau simply assumes that current fertility rates will persist.③If lower fertility lasts, it would help balance government accounts in the short term, because there would be fewer children to educate, but hurt in the long term.④A fertility rate of 1.8 would mean twice as large an annual social-securitydeficitby 2089 as one of 2.2, as a percentage of the social-security tax base.

翻译：生育率会否回弹，何时回弹，回弹多少，都会产生广泛影响。美国人口普查局预测生育率将保持现有水平。如果生育率持续走低，短期内由于受教育儿童减少故有利于平衡政府收支，但是长期来看会产生负面影响。如果生育率为1.8（作为社会保障税基的比率），那么到2089年每年的社会保障赤字将是生育率为2.2时的两倍。

点评：第九段介绍低生育率的广泛影响。①句总起指出生育率的变化有广泛的影响。②③④句举例说明生育率持续走低的影响。②句介绍美国人口普查局的预测，生育率将继续保持现有水平。③句假设生育率持续走低并预测其后果。短期有利于平衡收支（because引导原因状语从句解释原因：需要受教育的儿童数量减少）；不利于长期发展（hurt）。④句举例说明长期的不良影响。

本 文 脉 络

本文可分为三大部分。

第一部分：第一至四段

指出出现象：（发达国家）生育率普遍下降

第二部分：第五至八段

分析现象可能的原因。

第三部分：第九段

指出生育率持续走低的影响。

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